Legislature(2013 - 2014)SENATE FINANCE 532

01/24/2014 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE


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09:04:41 AM Start
09:05:26 AM SB119 || SB120 || SB121
09:05:51 AM Fy15 Budget Overview: Legislative Finance Division
09:56:08 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+= SB 120 APPROP: OPERATING BUDGET/LOANS/FUNDS TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
+= SB 119 BUDGET: CAPITAL TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
+= SB 121 APPROP: MENTAL HEALTH BUDGET TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
FY15 Budget - David Teal, Legislative Fiscal
Analyst, Legislative Finance Division
SENATE BILL NO. 119                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     "An  Act   making  appropriations,   including  capital                                                                    
     appropriations   and   other   appropriations;   making                                                                    
     appropriations to capitalize funds."                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
SENATE BILL NO. 120                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     "An  Act making  appropriations for  the operating  and                                                                    
     loan  program  expenses  of state  government  and  for                                                                    
     certain  programs,   capitalizing  funds,   and  making                                                                    
     reappropriations; making appropriations  under art. IX,                                                                    
     sec. 17(c),  Constitution of the State  of Alaska, from                                                                    
     the constitutional budget reserve fund."                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
SENATE BILL NO. 121                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     "An  Act making  appropriations for  the operating  and                                                                    
     capital    expenses   of    the   state's    integrated                                                                    
     comprehensive mental health program."                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:05:26 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly discussed the meeting's agenda.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
^FY15 Budget Overview: Legislative Finance Division                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:05:51 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
DAVID  TEAL, DIRECTOR,  LEGISLATIVE FINANCE  DIVISION, spoke                                                                    
to  a presentation  titled  "FY15  Budget Overview"(copy  on                                                                    
file).  He  stated  that the  Legislative  Finance  Division                                                                    
(LFD) was statutorily charged  with budget review functions,                                                                    
which included  the overview  publication that  was intended                                                                    
to get the committee off  to good start for the subcommittee                                                                    
process;  the  document  had   been  delivered  to  members'                                                                    
offices the prior  Wednesday. He pointed out  that the state                                                                    
was facing a deficit in the  current fiscal year and that it                                                                    
had one the prior year as well.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal discussed  slide 1 titled "Figure  1. December 2013                                                                    
Revenue Forecast  with Projected Expenditures  ($ millions)"                                                                    
and thought  that it appeared  that the FY15 deficit  may be                                                                    
the first of many deficits that  the state would face in the                                                                    
next 10 years. He stated  that the FY14 pre-transfer deficit                                                                    
was about  $2.2 billion, which represented  about 45 percent                                                                    
of  the  state's  unrestricted  General  Fund  revenue;  the                                                                    
state's revenue  was about $5  billion. He pointed  out that                                                                    
the  $2.2  billion  deficit was  reduced  by  transfers.  He                                                                    
stated  that the  revenue forecast  appeared to  be slightly                                                                    
pessimistic so  far and that  both the price  and production                                                                    
were a little  above the projected amounts;  he thought that                                                                    
the  forecast  might  be  about $300  million  too  low.  He                                                                    
related that  if you took  off the $300 million  and assumed                                                                    
that the deficit at the end  of FY14 was about $1.6 billion,                                                                    
it  would  still  take one-third  of  the  Statutory  Budget                                                                    
Reserve (SBR) Fund to eliminate the deficit.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Teal  stated  that  for  FY15,  the  governor's  fiscal                                                                    
summary showed a deficit of  about $1 billion; however, this                                                                    
figure was  before the  legislature added  capital projects.                                                                    
He assumed  that the legislature would  add capital spending                                                                    
to  the  governor's proposal.  In  addition  to the  capital                                                                    
proposals,  there would  be $700  million to  $1 billion  of                                                                    
retirement assistance that the  governor proposed to pay for                                                                    
with  the Constitutional  Budget Reserve  (CBR) Fund  rather                                                                    
than  General  Funds.  He related  that  not  accepting  the                                                                    
governor's proposal in full and  using general funds for the                                                                    
retirement  contributions   would  represent   another  $700                                                                    
million. He  stated that the governor's  budget showed about                                                                    
a $1 billion deficit; however,  if you added $400 million in                                                                    
capital  projects  and  used  $700  million  for  retirement                                                                    
assistance, the budget would be  back in the neighborhood of                                                                    
a $2 billion deficit.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:10:05 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Meyer noted  that Mr.  Teal was  referring to  the                                                                    
unfunded liability and the obligation  of the state for $700                                                                    
million. He noted  that one of the options  the governor had                                                                    
suggested  was  doing  a  $3   billion  cash  infusion,  but                                                                    
believed that  it was not  shown in the budget  as spending.                                                                    
He inquired if  the $3 billion would  be accurately depicted                                                                    
as spending rather than a  fund transfer. Mr. Teal responded                                                                    
that  technically, the  governor's presentation  was correct                                                                    
and  that the  CBR was  not considered  unrestricted General                                                                    
Funds but was considered  other funds; the governor's budget                                                                    
showed  the $3  billion  in  the other  funds  column as  an                                                                    
expense.  He added  that  the governor  also  showed the  $3                                                                    
billion as  a transfer that  withdrew from the CBR  and that                                                                    
it appeared be  a net zero; however, it was  only a net zero                                                                    
after transfers. He  pointed out that LFD tended  to look at                                                                    
the pre-transfer numbers because it  was thought that it was                                                                    
more in line  with cash flow. He stated that  when trying to                                                                    
live within  your means,  cash flow  mattered more  than the                                                                    
post  transfer   numbers  that   eliminated  a   deficit  by                                                                    
withdrawing money  from a savings  account. He  thought that                                                                    
both the pre  and post-transfer numbers were  useful and had                                                                    
different purposes.  He believed that  it was valid  to look                                                                    
at the infusion  as $3 billion taken from  reserves that the                                                                    
state expected to spend perhaps for other purposes.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  relayed that the state  constitution required that                                                                    
the CBR was repaid anytime money  was drawn from it and that                                                                    
the  second issue  was how  it would  be repaid.  He offered                                                                    
that  at some  point in  the future,  the legislature  would                                                                    
have to  use General Funds to  pay off the liability  to the                                                                    
CBR; in  this sense, it  was not a General  Fund expenditure                                                                    
currently, but  it would  be in the  future. He  pointed out                                                                    
that the state  constitution only stated that  the CBR would                                                                    
be paid,  but did not  specify when; as  a result, 10  or 15                                                                    
years could go by before it was paid back.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop inquired  if the $3 billion,  or whatever the                                                                    
draw was,  would at some  point in  time show up  as General                                                                    
Fund spending. Mr. Teal replied in the affirmative.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Senator   Hoffman  thought   that   the   prior  year,   the                                                                    
legislature had anticipated  a draw of from the  SBR of $250                                                                    
million;   this  amount   had   to  be   adjusted  and   was                                                                    
substantially higher  than $250 million. He  inquired if the                                                                    
draw from  the SBR  as of  June 30 in  the current  year had                                                                    
been closer  to $500  million. Mr.  Teal responded  that the                                                                    
state  was currently  looking at  a draw  from SBR  of about                                                                    
$1.9  billion after  transfers;  the  cash-flow deficit  was                                                                    
about $2.2 billion.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman  inquired what  the anticipated  deficit had                                                                    
been.  Mr. Teal  replied  that  he was  unsure  of what  the                                                                    
deficit had  been projected  to be  at the  end of  the last                                                                    
session, but thought that it was about $1 billion less.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly inquired  if Mr.  Teal  was referencing  the                                                                    
deficit from the SBR. Mr.  Teal responded that they were the                                                                    
same answer because  the deficit would be  filled first from                                                                    
the SBR.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly inquired if the  anticipated deficit had been                                                                    
$250  million. Senator  Hoffman  stated that  his point  was                                                                    
that the deficit turned out  to be substantially higher than                                                                    
was  anticipated  because  of  lower oil  prices  and  lower                                                                    
throughput;  the  state  was  farther  behind  than  it  had                                                                    
originally anticipated.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:15:30 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  stated that there  was a  deficit in FY13  of $250                                                                    
million  and  that anticipated  FY14  deficit  was about  $1                                                                    
billion; however,  the FY14  deficit would  be closer  to $2                                                                    
billion. He referenced  slide 1 one of  the presentation and                                                                    
related that similar deficits  were projected throughout the                                                                    
forecast  period. He  noted that  the forecast  expenditures                                                                    
were based on zero growth  in agency operations, a flat $800                                                                    
million  per year  capital  budge, and  that  the state  was                                                                    
basically looking at  a no growth budget  with the exception                                                                    
of retirement  assistance. He furthered  that the  slide was                                                                    
not  reflective of  the governor's  proposal,  but kept  the                                                                    
state  where it  was with  an increasing  amount of  General                                                                    
Funds  towards  retirement  assistance. He  noted  that  the                                                                    
slide's  budget stayed  relatively flat  and went  from $6.7                                                                    
billion to $7 billion by the  end of the period. He observed                                                                    
that the slide's blue line  showed revenue going up a little                                                                    
and then  down a  little over the  same period;  he believed                                                                    
that deficits  would be nearly  $2 billion and  sometimes up                                                                    
to $2.5 billion over that time period.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  thought that some  may wonder how likely  it would                                                                    
be that the  legislature would adopt a  no-growth budget. He                                                                    
noted that he  was not before the committee to  tell it what                                                                    
to do or the chances of  success, but that he could say that                                                                    
adopting  a no-growth  budget would  be  very difficult.  He                                                                    
relayed that it  was difficult to reduce  budgets, let alone                                                                    
having a no-growth  budget for many years.  He reported that                                                                    
the annual  rate of growth  in agency operating  budgets had                                                                    
been over 7 percent annually for the last 8 years.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly noted that the  prior year's budget was not a                                                                    
7 percent  increase and that  there were indicators  that it                                                                    
was the will  of the committee to drastically  slow down the                                                                    
rate of growth. Mr. Teal  responded that the FY14 growth had                                                                    
been quite a  bit lower than the previous year  and that the                                                                    
governor's FY15 proposal was almost a no growth budget.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly clarified  that he did not  want to criticize                                                                    
the  legislators  that  came before  him  for  the  expanded                                                                    
budgets and  that he  did not  know that  he would  not have                                                                    
been in the exact same boat.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  pointed out that  the former members may  have had                                                                    
big budgets, but that they also  saved a "pile" of money and                                                                    
had they  not set aside  $15 billion, the  current situation                                                                    
would be much worse than it was.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:19:27 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Teal  addressed  slide  2   titled  "Figure  2.  Budget                                                                    
Reserves  (CBR  and SBR)  under  the  December 2013  Revenue                                                                    
Forecast  and Indicated  Expenditure Assumptions($millions)"                                                                    
and stated  that he  could depict what  would happen  if the                                                                    
revenue forecast was correct and  if a no growth budget with                                                                    
the exception  of retirement costs was  achieved; he offered                                                                    
that it  was not a  pretty sight.  He asserted that  even if                                                                    
the state  constrained budget growth, reserves  of about $15                                                                    
billion would  disappear by  2024; at  this time,  the state                                                                    
would be in for a  hard landing because without reserves, it                                                                    
would have to  cut $2.5 billion from its budget  in a single                                                                    
year or  borrow the funds  in order  to make it  through. He                                                                    
reported  that  there  were several  options  available  for                                                                    
reaching  a   sustainable  budget  or  achieving   a  softer                                                                    
landing.  He stated  that the  options included  broad-based                                                                    
taxes such as  income and sales tax, as  well as eliminating                                                                    
the  Permanent Fund  Dividends;  both of  these options  had                                                                    
proven to  be unpopular  in the  past with  both legislators                                                                    
and citizens. He stated that  capital budget reductions were                                                                    
also a  possibility for achieving  a sustainable  budget and                                                                    
pointed out  that the  state had  always viewed  the capital                                                                    
budget as  the "shock absorber"  for the budget.  He pointed                                                                    
out that  capital budgets  may be  high currently,  but that                                                                    
they  would  drop  drastically  when  the  revenues  shrank;                                                                    
however, while  this was true, recent  budgets had contained                                                                    
many phased  projects. As a  result of the  phased projects,                                                                    
the flexibility of reducing the  capital budget like in past                                                                    
was no  longer there,  assuming that the  legislature wanted                                                                    
to continue fund those types of projects.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal alluded that no one  wanted to pull the plug on the                                                                    
Susitna-Watana  Hydroelectric Project,  the Knik  Arm Bridge                                                                    
and Toll  Authority, Fairbanks natural  gas, or  the instate                                                                    
gasline;  however,  if spending  was  not  reduced on  those                                                                    
capital projects,  capital budgets  would be  very difficult                                                                    
to  reduce. He  offered  that one  of  the state's  toughest                                                                    
decisions would be  deciding whether it could  afford all of                                                                    
the major and smaller capital  projects and whether it would                                                                    
have  to reduce  capital spending  and in  some cases,  take                                                                    
back money  that had been  appropriated for some of  the big                                                                    
projects;  he  added  that  this was  a  decision  that  the                                                                    
committee would have to make.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  stated that  a third option  was to  review agency                                                                    
budgets and reported that LFD  had prepared look-back graphs                                                                    
the  last several  years.  He relayed  that  the purpose  of                                                                    
these  graphs  were  to  clearly   show  what  programs  and                                                                    
allocations had  increased, while  at the same  time looking                                                                    
at  what value  the state  had received  for that  money. He                                                                    
reported  that the  look-back graphs  were also  prepared to                                                                    
allow  the  legislature  to  look   at  where  the  spending                                                                    
occurred  so  that it  could  be  unwound if  necessary.  He                                                                    
related that  reducing the budget  was not an easy  task any                                                                    
way you looked  at it, particularly when over  60 percent of                                                                    
revenue was spent  on the 3 cost drivers  of Medicaid, pre-K                                                                    
through 12 education, and  retirement assistance; he thought                                                                    
that given the revenue forecast,  these 3 items tended to be                                                                    
almost the  entire revenue  stream if  they were  allowed to                                                                    
continue growing the way they had in the past.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:24:41 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly noted  that  the 3  items  in reference  had                                                                    
grown rather  quickly and  thought that  a graph  had showed                                                                    
that  the  3  main  drivers  would eat  99  percent  of  the                                                                    
operating budget  by a certain  year; he inquired  what year                                                                    
that was. Mr.  Teal responded that it was 2024,  but that it                                                                    
was more  important to  look at the  trend rather  than what                                                                    
year or the  number on the top of the  graph. He stated that                                                                    
revenue was  going down and  the expenditures on the  3 main                                                                    
drivers were going up.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly recalled  giving a presentation in  1998 to a                                                                    
class at  the university. He  remembered that PERS  and TERS                                                                    
and was  not an issue  at the time,  but that the  state had                                                                    
been dealing  with education and  Medicaid. He  thought that                                                                    
at the time,  Medicaid had been expanding  by sometimes $120                                                                    
million per  year and  that it  was only  a matter  of years                                                                    
before  that  driver  ate  the   budget;  as  a  result,  he                                                                    
understood what Mr. Teal was trying to portray.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  inquired if Mr.  Teal had looked  at Scott                                                                    
Goldsmith's work  with the Institute of  Social and Economic                                                                    
Research. Mr. Teal responded in the affirmative.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Senator   Dunleavy   inquired   how   closely   Mr.   Teal's                                                                    
assumptions  paralleled Mr.  Goldsmith's.  Mr. Teal  replied                                                                    
that  they  paralleled fairly  closely.  He  noted that  Mr.                                                                    
Goldsmith was looking at attaining  a sustainable budget and                                                                    
thought  that Mr.  Goldsmith's approach  was to  convert oil                                                                    
reserves  to  some  sort  of  cash  flow;  he  thought  that                                                                    
approach was interesting,  but that he did not  think of the                                                                    
issue quite so long term. He  opined that 10 years out was a                                                                    
long time  and thought  that simply trying  to keep  in line                                                                    
with revenue over those 10 years would be hard enough.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  inquired if Mr. Teal's  assumed structural                                                                    
deficits  paralleled closely  to Mr.  Goldsmith's. Mr.  Teal                                                                    
responded in the affirmative.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Meyer inquired  if the  state was  better off  not                                                                    
doing the  $3 billion  cash infusion from  the CBR  that the                                                                    
governor  was suggesting;  he further  inquired if  it would                                                                    
make the CBR  last longer if the $3 billion  was left alone.                                                                    
Mr.  Teal  responded  that  any  plan  to  take  money  from                                                                    
reserves would  reduce future state assistance  and that the                                                                    
governor's  plan  was  to  reduce  the  assistance  to  $500                                                                    
million per year.  He spoke to slide 2 and  related that you                                                                    
could see a constant, rapid drop  and that the money ran out                                                                    
in FY23.  He explained that if  one took the $3  billion and                                                                    
put it  into retirement, the future  retirement expenditures                                                                    
would  be dropped  to $500  million per  year. He  continued                                                                    
that if  the $3 billion  infusion were enacted in  the model                                                                    
on  slide 2,  the  slope of  the graph  for  reserves was  a                                                                    
little lower  than it  used to be  because there  were lower                                                                    
deficits in  future years; however,  there was a  $3 billion                                                                    
drop and therefore,  the cash infusion would  not extend the                                                                    
life of the reserves.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:28:56 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman directed the  committee's attention to slide                                                                    
2  and  questioned  what  Mr. Teal  was  assuming  would  be                                                                    
capital spending on  the out years. Mr.  Teal responded that                                                                    
the assumption was $800 million  per year, but noted that it                                                                    
was merely  an assumption. He  input a $600  million capital                                                                    
budget  and  the  governor's  proposal  into  the  chart  to                                                                    
demonstrate what  it would look  like for the  committee; he                                                                    
noted  that it  did  extend  the life  of  the reserves.  He                                                                    
stated that  there were  other options  regarding retirement                                                                    
and that one  that he had discussed with the  chairmen was a                                                                    
more "pay  as you go"  kind of approach; adopting  this idea                                                                    
just  for PERS  would represent  another change.  He relayed                                                                    
that there  were options and  that he  did not think  it was                                                                    
that gloomy. He added that  he was fairly optimistic because                                                                    
he believed the revenue forecast was slightly pessimistic.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly inquired  if Mr.  Teal could  plug in  a $50                                                                    
million per year reduction to  the operating budget into the                                                                    
chart on slide 2 to see  what that would look like. Mr. Teal                                                                    
input  the figures  and noted  that the  change that  he was                                                                    
showing  was actually  a 2  percent reduction  per year;  it                                                                    
made the scenario much better,  but was actually represented                                                                    
a  reduction of  $75 million  to  $80 million  per year.  He                                                                    
showed the  committee what  a 1  percent reduction  per year                                                                    
would  look  like  and  stated that  in  this  scenario  the                                                                    
state's  reserves  would  still  be going  down,  but  would                                                                    
probably  extend until  the early  30s  [2030s]. He  thought                                                                    
that the operating  budget was critical and that  it was the                                                                    
growth in  the operating  budget that had  put the  state at                                                                    
its current budget levels; reducing  the operating budget by                                                                    
even $50 million per year  would leave the state much better                                                                    
off in the future.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal stated  that he did not look at  the chart on slide                                                                    
2 and think  that there was an inevitable crash  in 2023. He                                                                    
shared that  in 1998  and other  years, the  legislature and                                                                    
the  governor  had stepped  up  and  held back  budgets.  He                                                                    
offered that some  could say that oil prices  had bailed the                                                                    
state out,  but opined that it  had not been just  the price                                                                    
of oil;  expenditures had been  restrained when  they needed                                                                    
to be restrained.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:33:48 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal  continued to  address slide 2  and stated  that it                                                                    
was  focused more  on the  future  than on  the FY15  budget                                                                    
itself. He noted that Ms.  Rehfeld had been to the committee                                                                    
and  discussed the  FY15 budget.  He stated  that he  had no                                                                    
quarrels  or differences  with  Ms. Rehfeld's  presentation,                                                                    
but  noted that  she was  trying to  outline the  governor's                                                                    
policy.  He  did   not  have  much  to   say  regarding  the                                                                    
governor's   policy  and   plans,  and   related  that   his                                                                    
presentation was more technically  oriented. He thought that                                                                    
you  could  not make  good  FY15  decisions without  looking                                                                    
ahead; furthermore,  regardless of what the  committee chose                                                                    
to do,  LFD would  be ready to  assist with  getting through                                                                    
the  FY15  budget or  taking  a  longer-term view  of  state                                                                    
revenues  and  expenditures.  He  noted  that  most  of  his                                                                    
presentation  was taken  straight from  the overview,  which                                                                    
could be  found in the copy  room and on the  web. He stated                                                                    
that the  overview had the  fiscal summary, a review  of the                                                                    
language sections, and  a write-up for each  of the agencies                                                                    
for subcommittee work.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly inquired  if  members  had larger  questions                                                                    
about the budget for Mr. Teal to address.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy observed  that the  committee could  shift                                                                    
priorities  around within  the operating  budget. He  stated                                                                    
that putting more money into  education was fine, as long as                                                                    
other  areas within  the operating  budget were  reduced and                                                                    
the overall number  was not exceeded. Mr.  Teal replied that                                                                    
if the  state wanted to hold  the line and spent  more money                                                                    
in one area, it would need to spend less on other things.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:36:02 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Fairclough  thought  that the  conversation  was                                                                    
intellectual  and wondered  if there  needed to  be criteria                                                                    
set as budgets  were looked at. She pointed  out that Alaska                                                                    
had  many years  of oil  providing its  revenue and  thought                                                                    
that looking too  far out in the future might  result in the                                                                    
state not  making the best  decisions with the  dollars that                                                                    
it  had today.  She wondered  what  the state  was doing  to                                                                    
analyze every dollar that it  invested and stated that there                                                                    
was  no  magic bullet.  She  recalled  serving on  a  fiscal                                                                    
policy subcommittee and stated  that it had documented every                                                                    
project that  it could find that  was out there in  order to                                                                    
review any options  that Mr. Teal had  provided; she offered                                                                    
than none of  those options were palatable  to Alaskans. She                                                                    
opined  that  Alaskans  wanted  the  state  to  protect  the                                                                    
permanent  fund  and did  not,  in  her opinion,  support  a                                                                    
state-income  tax  by  a  margin   of  50  percent  plus  1;                                                                    
furthermore, Alaskans did not support  a sales tax on top of                                                                    
other  municipal taxes.  She opined  that given  the options                                                                    
that  Alaskans  were  opposed  to,  there  was  very  little                                                                    
opportunity except  to examine the reserves  and invest them                                                                    
in  a way  that had  a greater  rate of  return in  order to                                                                    
start digging the state out of the hole it was in.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Fairclough noted that  the following Tuesday, the                                                                    
committee    would    start   talking    about    investment                                                                    
opportunities and  noted that an issue  was whether Alaskans                                                                    
should invest  in a natural gas  pipeline; it was yet  to be                                                                    
determined if this  was a good move for  Alaska. She thought                                                                    
that  if   the  committee   took  the  gas   pipeline  under                                                                    
advisement, it would  be an opportunity to  invest where the                                                                    
state  might  see a  greater  rate  of  return on  a  longer                                                                    
horizon like a  20-year commitment. She noted  for those who                                                                    
might be afraid  of a 20-year commitment that  if the Alaska                                                                    
was in  the project as a  partner with a company  that would                                                                    
see profits over the 20  years, the state would receive that                                                                    
profit too  and its  dollars would  be generated  twice; the                                                                    
state's dollar would generate in  its ownership interest, as                                                                    
well as revenue to shareholders.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Fairclough  wondered if there was  something that                                                                    
the state was  not considering in the  financial markets, if                                                                    
the committee  or LFD was reviewing  opportunities regarding                                                                    
what  the  Department of  Revenue  (DOR)  was doing  in  the                                                                    
state's subaccounts,  if there  was another  way to  use the                                                                    
dollars that were  in front of the committee  to dig quicker                                                                    
on behalf of  Alaska, and what kinds  of financial resources                                                                    
needed to be utilized to look  at every dollar the state was                                                                    
investing. She  thought maybe the  committee should  look at                                                                    
the  formula driven  areas  to  see if  it  was getting  the                                                                    
investment return  from a  financial perspective.  She spoke                                                                    
about education  and related  that the  state was  getting a                                                                    
big bang  for its buck in  trying to reach all  students and                                                                    
provide them  with the best  opportunities. She  stated that                                                                    
the committee  would "shift in  forward", that it  needed to                                                                    
go  "faster than  25 miles  an hour,  but we  don't need  to                                                                    
break the speed limit."                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Fairclough  opined that if the  state was running                                                                    
just to  stay away from the  fiscal cliff in 2024,  it would                                                                    
not be making the best  decisions. She recalled watching the                                                                    
state  go  up  and  down  with the  price  of  oil  and  oil                                                                    
production. She wondered if the  state's horizon should be 1                                                                    
year, which  she thought was a  mistake, or if 10  years was                                                                    
the right  timeframe. She expressed concern  that looking at                                                                    
2024  and  the  fiscal  cliff   was  not  making  her  think                                                                    
positively  about  what the  best  decision  for Alaska  was                                                                    
currently.  She supported  holding  the  line, but  wondered                                                                    
what  the committee  could do  in its  jurisdiction to  help                                                                    
guide Alaska in making  good, prudent decisions and inquired                                                                    
what the committee's strategic plan was.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:41:23 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly stated  that when  looking at  the horizons,                                                                    
the price of  oil versus production, and  other factors that                                                                    
the state rose  and fell on, he came to  the conclusion that                                                                    
regardless  of   the  price  or  production   a  $6  billion                                                                    
operating budget was  not justified. He didn't  think that a                                                                    
$6  billion  operating  budget   was  survivable  under  any                                                                    
scenario.  He recalled  speaking with  DOR and  relayed that                                                                    
they  had been  very optimistic  regarding the  dollars that                                                                    
would come  to the state  treasury from a  gasline, although                                                                    
it had  been the mantra for  years that a gasline  would not                                                                    
provide much in revenue.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Fairclough  interjected   that  ownership  in  a                                                                    
gasline would provide good revenue. Co-Chair Kelly agreed.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly  offered  that  even  with  ownership  in  a                                                                    
gasline, the state would not  survive a $6 billion operating                                                                    
budget that  was growing in  addition to other  unknowns. He                                                                    
opined that  the state was  probably in for some  down times                                                                    
on  its returns  on investments  due to  market factors.  He                                                                    
thought that capital budgets,  investments, and other things                                                                    
were all necessary for the  committee to look at the future,                                                                    
but  that  those were  revenue  areas;  whereas, mostly  the                                                                    
committee  members,  "for  now" were  facing  expenses  that                                                                    
needed to be addressed. He  added that his comments were not                                                                    
meant to  disagree with anything that  Vice-Chair Fairclough                                                                    
had said,  but that  her comments had  made him  think about                                                                    
the issue further.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Fairclough noted that  Scott Goldsmith had stated                                                                    
that an operating budget level  of 5.5 [billion dollars] was                                                                    
a sustainable number  and wondered how long  the state would                                                                    
have to hold that level if it was achieved.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly corrected that the  5.5 [billion dollars] was                                                                    
in reference to the total  capital and operating budgets and                                                                    
was not just the operating budget.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Fairclough noted  that  regardless  of what  the                                                                    
number was,  her point was the  time value of money  and how                                                                    
long it  would be before  that number started going  up. She                                                                    
inquired if  the state would  have to hold the  5.5 [billion                                                                    
dollars]  for 1  year, 3  years,  5 years,  or forever.  She                                                                    
noted that  Mr. Goldsmith was basing  his assumptions purely                                                                    
on the revenues that were in  the ground and the assets that                                                                    
were  there  under  current assumptions.  She  inquired  how                                                                    
Alaska  could change  the  dynamics and  if  there were  any                                                                    
levers within "that" proposal that  would allow the state to                                                                    
do something different.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Fairclough provided an  example that in the past,                                                                    
there  had been  a  proposed $2000  charge for  out-of-state                                                                    
fishermen who  wanted to  harvest a  king salmon  in Alaska;                                                                    
she clarified  for the  record that  she was  not suggesting                                                                    
using this  example and  observed that  it was  extreme. She                                                                    
offered that the  calculation might have been  based off the                                                                    
current  king salmon  tags that  were  taken. She  concluded                                                                    
that the  state did have  options and expressed a  desire to                                                                    
solve  the problem.  Mr.  Teal stated  that  the number  was                                                                    
roughly $5.5 billion per year,  which he had achieved in his                                                                    
the  model  by  assuming  zero growth  and  a  zero  capital                                                                    
budget; however, it did not  matter because spending was the                                                                    
same whether it was capital  or operating. He noted that the                                                                    
point was  that the  total spending  was about  $5.5 billion                                                                    
per year;  furthermore, if  you looked at  what this  did to                                                                    
the  reserves  on  slide  2,   the  problem  went  away.  He                                                                    
concluded that  his model, which just  examined revenues and                                                                    
expenditures year-by-year, reached  very similar conclusions                                                                    
to Mr. Goldsmith's longer-term view of the world.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr.   Teal  addressed   earlier   comments  about   possible                                                                    
investment opportunities for the  state and thought that the                                                                    
discussions were  extremely valuable; however,  he suggested                                                                    
that  the committee  should consider  that it  did not  have                                                                    
much time  for those  discussions. He  pointed out  that the                                                                    
longer the  delay and the  closer Alaska got to  that fiscal                                                                    
cliff, the  fewer options there  would be. He  reported that                                                                    
Alaska  currently had  billions  of dollars  to invest,  but                                                                    
that  as  money  was  spent   and  deficits  continued,  the                                                                    
reserves would get lower and  lower; as result, Alaska would                                                                    
not have the same investment capital available.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Teal addressed  Vice-Chair Fairclough's earlier comments                                                                    
regarding needing  to move faster  and agreed with  them. He                                                                    
stated that now was the  time for the discussions because if                                                                    
they were  started in 2022,  the options would no  longer be                                                                    
available.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:48:15 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman  thought that when  looking at  the drawdown                                                                    
of CBR and SBR, people needed  to realize that the state did                                                                    
not have a balanced budget  without reserves; he opined that                                                                    
that the  average Alaskan did  not realize this and  that it                                                                    
was a problem.  He offered that the vote on  SB 21 the prior                                                                    
year had been meant to flatten  out the oil decline and turn                                                                    
it  around; furthermore,  he and  everyone else  were unsure                                                                    
when it would turn around or  flatten out. He opined that SB
21 had been one of the  solutions the prior year and that in                                                                    
the  current  year,  the state  was  looking  at  indefinite                                                                    
deficit  spending unless  something happened;  he reiterated                                                                    
that average Alaskan did not realize this.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  thought that Senator  Hoffman raised  a good                                                                    
point.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Fairclough  responded  to  comments  by  Senator                                                                    
Hoffman.  She noted  that the  issue  was confusing  because                                                                    
Alaska  had a  changing  tax regime  and  that the  "number"                                                                    
looked  very similar  to the  state's  deficit. She  offered                                                                    
that the  production and price  of oil were  "driving almost                                                                    
all of  this"; furthermore,  the production had  fallen, but                                                                    
the price  had risen.  She stated that  when looking  at the                                                                    
global market, it appeared as  though unless there was a war                                                                    
or some other event, that oil  prices may go down as America                                                                    
became more energy independent and  that Alaska's gas may be                                                                    
less  or more  valuable if  it could  be brought  to a  spot                                                                    
market and  shipped. She offered  that Alaska had to  have a                                                                    
healthy industry  and related that  it was  disheartening to                                                                    
hear SB 21  tied to "this"; she acknowledged that  SB 21 was                                                                    
part  of "it,"  but  that  the bill  was  also  part of  the                                                                    
solution as  well. She  noted that  the committee  had asked                                                                    
its finance people to be  conservative and that it wanted to                                                                    
have  budget numbers  that  exceeded  projection versus  the                                                                    
other way  around where  the state did  not have  the money.                                                                    
She stated that she did not  mind being on the other side of                                                                    
the conversation  on SB 21  and discussing it,  but believed                                                                    
that currently,  at a price of  $105 per barrel of  oil, the                                                                    
state   was   performing   better;   furthermore,   it   was                                                                    
anticipated that these numbers would stay the same.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Fairclough continued  to address earlier comments                                                                    
by Senator  Hoffman and  noted that  the committee  could do                                                                    
the  comparison and  discuss SB  21, but  believed that  the                                                                    
only  way  that  ACES  could   perform  better  was  in  the                                                                    
progressivity portion if oil prices spiked.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman shared  that his point was  that the average                                                                    
Alaskan did  not realize that  in the future,  the committee                                                                    
did  not   foresee  a  balanced  budget   without  reserves;                                                                    
furthermore, unless things changed,  someday the state would                                                                    
have no reserves.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  observed that there were  disturbing reports                                                                    
that the Chinese  economy might tank, which  could drive the                                                                    
price of oil down dramatically if it happened.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:52:45 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Bishop noted  that depending  on the  modeling, the                                                                    
state could be  out of funding at some point  in the future.                                                                    
He pointed  out that the Alaska  was focused on oil  and gas                                                                    
and wondered  how the state  would capitalize and  spend its                                                                    
capital dollars on projects going forward.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop observed that mining  was not being discussed                                                                    
much in relation to the  budget issues, but thought that the                                                                    
industry  had added  the most  jobs  in Alaska  in the  last                                                                    
several years.  He pointed out  that Alaska was  a resource-                                                                    
rich state  that was 50 years  behind the rest of  the world                                                                    
on  discoveries. He  thought  that mining  would  be a  huge                                                                    
opportunity  going forward  for Alaska's  economy and  was a                                                                    
real bright spot. He stated  that there were positives going                                                                    
forward and  that mining  ought to be  a central  driver. He                                                                    
believed that the  state should be focused  on projects that                                                                    
would add revenue to the state treasury going forward.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly noted  that  one of  the  problems that  the                                                                    
state always  had was  that increasing  economic development                                                                    
did not  always do  things for  the treasury  because Alaska                                                                    
did not have the structures in  place, such as taxes or fees                                                                    
that provided  significant revenue to the  state. He thought                                                                    
that tobacco provided the second  highest amount of money to                                                                    
the state treasury, which in his opinion was pretty "zany."                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:55:24 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly discussed the following meeting's agenda.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
SB  119  was  HEARD  and   HELD  in  committee  for  further                                                                    
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SB 120 was HEARD and HELD in committee for further                                                                              
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SB 121 was HEARD and HELD in committee for further                                                                              
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
SB 120 012414 LFD Presentation.pdf SFIN 1/24/2014 9:00:00 AM
SB 120